I know some people abhor social media. The sector has certainly taken a beating lately in the markets, but I really love Twitter. It gives me the ability to hear the (curated) voices of people I know, don’t know, and in some cases hope I never know, but who make me think. I follow the newspapers and journals I used to have to login to separately, read other media from all around the world I didn’t even know existed, and get into impromptu conversations with real experts.
Since World War Two and the Bretton Woods agreements that established the post-war dollar-centric global financial system, the dollar has been the pre-eminent vehicle (reserve/international) currency. The dollar accounts for over 60% of global foreign exchange reserves and 80% of world trade is dollar-denominated, as are 100% of the global transactions in oil and other commodities. Moreover, the chronic U.S. external deficits have provided global markets with abundant dollar liquidity.
Mexico matters. In addition to being our southern neighbor, Mexico is our third largest trading partner, after China and Canada. It is ranked as the 15th largest economy in the world. On Sunday the country experienced a seismic change in leadership. Fueled by anger at violence and corruption, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the 64-year old populist center left candidate best known as AMLO, was elected by a clear majority in all but one state and a simple majority in both houses. He had promised to Make Mexico Great Again.
I agree with a Twitter commentator today who said that US-China trade relations was giving him whiplash after President Trump’s volte-face on ZTE. For context, I recommend two new books with a longer view on the changes taking place in China. The first, “The End of an Era” by Carl Minzer is truly a must-read for any China watcher. Devin Stewart at the Carnegie Council conducted a wonderful interview with Prof Minzer, which I’ve included below.
Spring has been a bit tardy this year in the US, and I hear many other places, but not in Asia. The title of a recent Brookings meeting at Northwestern University was “Japan, the United States, and the Future of Asia” but the topic was Korea. I posed the question of whether or not we are experiencing a false spring. Talks between the two Koreas, the US and China are certainly a hopeful development, but do they mask fundamental and growing divisions between the major powers in the Pacific? Together, these countries comprise half of global GDP.
In January, 2018, the Chinese government issued new regulations to facilitate the issuing of R visas for overseas talent. In the future, foreign experts including top scientists, international entrepreneurs and other talents whose skills are in urgent demand will be allowed to stay in China for up to 180 days at a time, with multiple entries on a visa valid from 5 to 10 years. Their spouse and children can also apply similar visas.