Politics
The Oriental Economist - June 2016
written by Richard Katz on June 17, 2016
The Oriental Economist June 2016 Issue topics cover Nurturing entrepreneurs, UH election prospects, Foreign Firms in Japan, Economy Watch, Losing steam among voters, Mr. Obama goes to Hiroshima.
TOE March 2016
written by Richard Katz on March 07, 2016
Richard Katz's March 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist. Topics include Abe’s Approval: A Mile Wide, Just An Inch Deep, So Strong and Yet So Weak; Negative Rate Backfire, Tax Postponement Mulled; Raising Profits without Raising Sales, A New Bottom Line; Nuke Power Plans Don’t Add Up and Flood of New Diet Members Decimates LDP ‘Old Guard’ - Abe’s New Conservativism
TOE Alert: Court Injunction Probably Just Delays, Not Prevents, Nuke Restarts
written by Richard Katz on March 10, 2016
Key points: - Court decision ordering shutdown of two nuclear reactors will likely just delay, rather than prevent, restarting many of Japan’s reactors - High courts will likely maintain their past rulings that lower courts must defer to the expertise of the nuclear regulators - Still, the decision could lead to other court cases causing further delays and more costs for the utilities - If the courts make the utilities add additional safety measures, that could lead the utilities to lessen the number of reactors they find financially viable - Tomorrow is the fifth anniversary of the march 2011 Fukushima disaster, and only two nuclear reactors are back in operation, far less than any pro-nuclear policymaker to whom we spoke expected by this time - The Abe administration policy is to have nuclear power supply 20-22% of all electricity in Japan by 2030; this goal is unlikely to be met
TOE Alert: Teflon Abe; the Curse of One-Party Democracy
written by Richard Katz on March 02, 2016
Key points: - As we expected, public disenchantment has grown as Abenomics failed to deliver on its promises; in a new Nikkei poll, 50% of respondents said they were dissatisfied - However, we were wrong in our expectation that disenchantment with Abenomics would propel a steady erosion of Abe’s overall approval ratings; over the last year, approval has stabilized at around 40-50%, a high level for a PM with Abe’s tenure - There is growing expectation that Abe will call—and win—a double-election this summer of both Upper and Lower House; Abe will not, however, secure a two-thirds majority in both Houses needed to revise the Constitution
TPP: Ball is in GOP Court
written by Richard Katz on October 09, 2015
In a surprising development, it is Congressional Republicans and a few of their business allies who now pose the biggest threat to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement among 12 countries with 40% of the world’s GDP.
Enforce Japan’s Anti-Discrimination Laws: How to Raise Wages
written by Richard Katz on September 04, 2015
Richard Katz's September issue of TOE includes reports on How to Raise Wages, For Now, Abe Polls Bounce, Abe Opens Door with Statement on War, Abe’s Careful Speech, Economy Watch, an interview with Nicholas Lardy on China's stock market and an interview with Tokyo University assistant professor Matthew Brummer, an expert on innovation, to understand Japan’s status as a “tech power.”
For first time, majority disapprove of Abe
written by Richard Katz on July 22, 2015
Disapproval outweighs approval by 14 percentage points in Kyodo survey
How Much Do Stock Prices Help Abe?
written by Richard Katz on July 14, 2015
In this report, Richard argues why Abe's belief that the rising stock prices will help his overall approval rating is incorrect.
TPA: Discontent Behind the Dysfunction, Part 3
written by Richard Katz on June 19, 2015
If TPP were going to produce very sizable real income gains for most American workers (through some combination of higher wages and lower prices), then the economic arguments for TPP might be more persuasive.
TPA: Discontent Behind the Dysfunction, Part 5
written by Richard Katz on June 23, 2015
Senate approves close of debate on TPA 60-37; TAA requires another vote; and then a vote in the House. Under TPA, even if TPP were concluded tomorrow, it would be at least four months before Congress could vote on ratification.
