International Trade and Investment

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Data Round-Up: Strong Wage Gains Increase the Odds for a March Rate Hike

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s January Employment (including a review of the Annual Payroll Benchmark) and December International Trade reports.

The U.S. Dollar and International Economic Conditions

FMI’s end-of-the-month summary for November U.S. dollar analysis.

TPP: Ball is in GOP Court

In a surprising development, it is Congressional Republicans and a few of their business allies who now pose the biggest threat to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement among 12 countries with 40% of the world’s GDP.

Data Round-Up: Trade Sector Likely Subtracted -0.5% from 15Q3 Real GDP

FMI’s analysis of today’s August International Trade report.

Data Round-Up: Dollar Stabilizing; Trade Prices Continue to Decline

FMI’s reviews of September US Dollar & Trade Prices data.

FMI October 2015 Economic and Investment Outlook

FMI's complete October 2015 Economic & Investment Outlook.

TOE Alert: Time Running out for TPP; Auto Talks in DC Make Little or No Headway

Automotive TPP talks last week in DC failed to resolve—or even narrow substantially—the gap among the US, Japan, Canada and Mexico. Another round of talks is expected next week.

Data Round-Up: Services Up Strongly in July; 15Q2 Real GDP Likely to be Revised Up to +3%

FMI’s analysis of today’s July Non-Manufacturing Index survey and June International Trade report.

Data Round-Up: Trade a Moderate Plus for 15Q3 GDP; Services Remain Solid

FMI’s analysis of today’s July International Trade report and August Non-Manufacturing Index survey.

TPA: Discontent Behind the Dysfunction, Part 3

If TPP were going to produce very sizable real income gains for most American workers (through some combination of higher wages and lower prices), then the economic arguments for TPP might be more persuasive.