International Trade and Investment
China recorded the lowest GDP of 6.9% for 25 years in 2015; given historically high levels of debt and excess housing and factory capacity, growth going forward will stagnate. In 2015, China became a net outbound investor for the first time. The trend of rising outbound FDI will continue as China seeks higher than domestic returns and access to new markets, incl. for geopolitical reasons.
FMI’s Commentary on the Brexit vote and its economic consequences, or lack thereof
FMI’s analysis of today’s April Advance International Trade in Goods results.
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April Non-Manufacturing Index, April Vehicle Sales, March International Trade, and 16Q1 Productivity & Labor Costs data.
FMI’s analysis of today’s March Advance International Trade in Goods results.
Richard Katz's the Oriental Economist April 2016 issue includes reports Playing Trade Poker with Trump, Will a ‘double-election’ follow this summer - Second Tax Delay, Sad Shunto, Fiscal Straits Pit Elderly Against Children- Daycare Dilemma, and Pharaonic Construction Program - Call of the Crane.
FMI’s analyses of today’s January Personal Income & Consumption data, Second Report of 15Q4 GDP, and the January Advance International Trade in Goods results.
Key points: - In January, real (price-adjusted) exports plunged by 9% from a year ago, the most severe downturn in three years; three-month average down 5% - Declining exports are a global problem for Japan, not a China problem - Nor does it seem a problem of a global slowdown in imports, but of a Japanese loss in market share - Credit Suisse sees GDP growing just 0.4% in calendar 2016 and falling 0.1% in 2017 (latter assumes tax hike is implemented on schedule in April 2017)