Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

Data Round-Up: Core CPI Lull Continues (for Now); Retail Sales Spring Forward Gradually

written by Michael Lewis on May 12, 2017

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April CPI, April Retail Sales, and March Business Inventories reports as well as a review of April Bank Lending & Money Supply results.

Soft & Hard Data Agree: Conditions OK, Likely to Get Somewhat Better

written by Michael Lewis on May 11, 2017

FMI's commentary about the divergence between "soft" and "hard" data series.

Data Round-Up: Core & Total PPI Rebound Strongly in April

written by Michael Lewis on May 11, 2017

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April PPI (including a review of high-frequency inflation indicators) and the latest Weekly UI Claims and Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: 'Soft' NFIB and "Hard' JOLTS Data Both Remain Upbeat

written by Michael Lewis on May 09, 2017

FMI’s analyses of today’s April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and March JOLTS results.

Preview of Data Releases: May 1-5

written by Michael Lewis on May 01, 2017

FMI's preview of the rest of this week’s major data releases.

Data Round-Up: Solid PMI, Real Consumption Reports Point to Strong Rebound in 17Q2 GDP

written by Michael Lewis on May 01, 2017

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s April PMI, March Construction, and March Personal Income reports, as well as a review of GDP Sources & Assumptions for 17Q1

Data Round-Up: Real Equipment Spending Up =5% in 17Q1; Total GDP Growth Only +0.5%

written by Michael Lewis on April 27, 2017

FMI’s analyses of today’s March Durable Goods Orders and March Advance Indicators (Goods-Trade, Retail & Wholesale Inventories) reports, as well as the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: Weak 17Q1 GDP Is 'Old News,' Solid Rebound Coming in 17Q2

written by Michael Lewis on April 28, 2017

FMI’s analyses of today’s Advance Report of 17Q1 GDP and April Chicago Purchasing Managers and other Regional Business Surveys, plus our Summary of data released in April and Schedule of major releases in May.

Data Round-Up: Housing Activity Springs Forward; Consumer, Business Surveys Remain Upbeat

written by Michael Lewis on April 25, 2017

FMI’s analyses of today’s March New Home Sales, February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board’s April Consumer Confidence Index, plus notes on April Richmond & Dallas Fed regional surveys.