TOE
TOE Alert: The Cost of the Weak Yen: 5% of Gross Domestic Income
written by Richard Katz on May 05, 2015
The 30% depreciation of the yen could be lowering Japan’s standard of living by as much as 4-5%, according to the GDP figures,
Can Cheap Yen Drive GDP Growth, Part 2?
written by Richard Katz on May 03, 2015
In this report Richard analyzes why the yen’s weakness might not trigger a surge in the trade surplus that drives GDP growth as in the mid-2000s.
Japan Exports Show "Green Shoots"
written by Richard Katz on April 24, 2015
Export rebound in March in Japan makes economists more optimistic about both medium-term real exports and Jan-March GDP.
Tokyo Says Don't Expect TPP Deal at Summit
written by Richard Katz on April 20, 2015
Richard analyzes the remaining issue for Japan and the U.S. to reach a bilateral deal in time for the upcoming summit in Washington.
TOE Alert: Record low turnout and uncontested seats give LDP triumph in local elections
written by Richard Katz on April 13, 2015
This report analyzes why Abe's victory in local elections does not reflect support for either Abenomics or any other of Abe’s policies, as claimed by the Abe team.
TOE Alert: Wyden-Hatch Cosponsor TPA without Any Increase in Congress' Ability to Withdraw all or Parts of It
written by Richard Katz on April 16, 2015
In this report, Richard explains why Wyden-Hatch deal on TPA increases the likelihood that TPA can pass the House.
April Could be “Do or Die” For TPP, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on April 10, 2015
In this second part of the report, Richard explains why there might not be a TPP deal reached at the summit between Abe and Obama in late April.
April Could be “Do or Die" for TPP, Part 1
written by Richard Katz on April 09, 2015
April may be the “do or die” month for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement (FTA). Two hurdles come in April, and failure to clear either one could doom TPP to become another Doha Round, i.e., trade negotiations that turn into a gabfest that goes on forever but is never concluded.
GDP Risks Contraction in Jan.-March, Part 1
written by Richard Katz on April 02, 2015
Richard analyzes the reason behind Japan's GDP may contract in Jan-March based on the February data.
Toyota the Exception On Wage Hikes, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on March 24, 2015
In this part 2 of the report, Richard argues that rather than rush to judgment about the impact of this spring’s wage negotiations on nominal and real wage growth based on the headlines from a few big firms like Toyota, we should wait until we get the actual numbers on wages for April and a few months thereafter.
