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FMI March 2016 Economic and Investment Outlook

FMI's complete March 2016 Economic & Investment Outlook.

Data Round-Up: Home Price Trend Continues to Impress

FMI’s analyses of this morning’s December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, January Existing Home Sales and February Conference Board Consumer Confidence results as well as a review of today’s collection of February Fed Bank regional manufacturing and services surveys.

FMI Weekly Data Preview; Barron’s Cover Story

FMI’s complete Preview of the notable data releases this week

TOE Alert: Exports Plunge 9% in January from Year Ago; GDP Forecasts for 2016-17 Being Lowered

Key points: - In January, real (price-adjusted) exports plunged by 9% from a year ago, the most severe downturn in three years; three-month average down 5% - Declining exports are a global problem for Japan, not a China problem - Nor does it seem a problem of a global slowdown in imports, but of a Japanese loss in market share ​- Credit Suisse sees GDP growing just 0.4% in calendar 2016 and falling 0.1% in 2017 (latter assumes tax hike is implemented on schedule in April 2017)

Data Round-Up: Fed Surveys Show Modest Uptick in Mfg; Claims Point to Good Feb. Jobs Report

FMI’s review of today’s February Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing survey and the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data.

Data Round-Up: Core CPI Running at Fast Pace in Nearly 4 Years

FMI’s analyses of today’s January CPI report and other high-frequency inflation indicators.

Data Round-Up: Manufacturing, Housing Starts OK; PPI Shows Some Upward Pressure

FMI’s analyses of today’s January Industrial Production, Housing Starts and PPI reports and notes on the February NY Fed regional surveys.

TOE Alert: Growing Number of Currency Traders See Yen Going to Y95-110 Per Dollar; Abe Aide Says Delay Consumption Tax

Key points: - Abe Advisor Honda calls for postponement of consumption tax hike - Investment bankers increasingly see yen moving to ¥95-110/$ during 2016 - Even MOF intervention seen as creating only temporary interruption in yen rise ​- Separating out the fundamental and technical factors

TOE Alert: GDP Falls 1.4%; Still 0.4% Below Pre-recession Peak Almost Eight Years Ago

Key points: - GDP fell at 1.4% pace in Oct-Dec. - This is the eighth quarter of the last 16 in which GDP has fallen - GDP still 0.4% below pre-recession peak almost eight years ago - At this point, Japan’s recovery from 2008-09 slump no better than in Eurozone - US, UK and Germany all doing substantially better than Japan - Biggest hit to growth is ongoing slump in consumer spending; spending even lower than it was almost four years ago in Jan-March 2012 - Artificial stimulus of spending on consumer durables has gone into big reverse - Second arrow missing in action as government spending flat for last two years

U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely)

FMI’s Commentary on recession fears.

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