Report
Data Round-Up: PMI Improving Nicely; Real GDP Likely +2.5% in 16Q2
posted by Michael Lewis on July 01, 2016
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Headline
PMI pick-up supports our estimate of +2 1⁄2% or so real GDP growth in 16Q2. Orders/inventory gap points to stronger mfg results ahead. After its robust 16Q1 showing, real residential investment is experiencing payback in 16Q2. The trend remains healthy.
Abstract
The PMI beat the consensus and reached its highest level since early 2015. Though the PMI’s utility as a GDP proxy has eroded since the Great Recession, today’s reading would imply just under+3% real GDP growth in 16Q2. We are tracking a +2.5% or so gain, with today’s construction data confirming payback after robust residential results in 16Q1.About Michael Lewis
Mike Lewis founded Free Market Inc. (FMI) in 1982 as a full-service economic consulting firm, providing insights and in-depth data analysis primarily for institutional money managers and corporate planning directors.
FMI has compiled a solid record of timely, independent and accurate economic forecasts. FMI blends its unique analysis of indicators and experience with economic cycles into a consistent overall outlook. They offer both a comprehensive overview and in-depth detail that enable clients to integrate FMI’s insights into their decision-making process.
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