French Election Special Report: Le Candidat du Système

Why do we cover elections at EconVue?  Elections create policy.  And policy drives the economy.  This has never been more true than today.  In the next week we will have elections in two major countries, France & South Korea.  The United States is still experiencing the aftershocks of the 2016 election, and we will have a special report on the possible repeal of Obamacare by David Johnson in our next newsletter. 

Once again we have faced a last minute election surprise, this time the hacking of Emmanuel Macron’s campaign. This story is too new and there are too few details to analyze properly, but I interviewed EconVue expert Albert Bressand for his insights into the campaign, and the longer term consequences of the French presidential election this Sunday.  You can read the interview here and are welcome to register and post your comments.

Finally, a word about the passing of an eminent, groundbreaking economist who definitely deserved, but never received a Nobel Prize. William Baumol’s theory helps to explain why health care and education costs have risen, while the cost of  goods have decreased due to manufacturing productivity.  

https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/5/4/15547364/baumol-cost-disease-explained

His work will help us one day to unravel the productivity puzzle.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

French Election

Defeating Marine Le Pen won't be enough to save France
Sheri Berman 5/5/2017 Vox

Saving Europe is not about a single election. It's about 2022, and the upcoming German election. And Brexit.

The Trouble for France's Next President - Macron May Win But Will He Govern?
Camille Pecastaing 5/4/2017 Foreign Affairs

If Macron wins, will his new party En Marche! gain control in parliament? The Prime Minister may be a woman you've never heard of before, not Le Pen.

The Future of Europe Hinges on a Face-Off in France
Lauren Collins 5/2/2017 The New Yorker

Terrific background on the French election being held this Sunday.

Korean Peninsula

A Korean Election Nail-Biter
Wall Street Journal 5/5/2017

France is not the only country holding an election in the coming week.

Chinese state media hit back in unprecedented war of words with North Korea
Shi Jiangtao & Catherine Wong 5/4/2017 South China Morning Post

Unprecedented: Chinese media hit back in war of words with North Korea

North Korea’s Mysterious New Islands
Damen Cook 5/1/2017 the Diplomat

China isn’t the only country with suspicious island construction sites.

Asia

Abe’s New Vision for Japan's Constitution
Yuki Tatsumi 5/5/2017 the Diplomat

Prime Minister Shintaro Abe has announced a 2020 deadline for changes to Article 9 of the Japanese constitution regarding the role of its military. This is at least in part a response to perceived or actual unpredictability of US defense guarantees and has immense long term implications for the region.

Who is shaping today's US-China relationship?
Tea Leaf Nation Stuff 5/3/2-17 Foreign Policy

Interesting choice for the list: Tsai Ing-wen, President of Taiwan

China leverage rising at 'alarming pace': central bank official
Reuters 5/1/2017

Credible source: the head of research at the People's Bank of China.

U.S.

Durbin’s Debit-Card Price Controls Hit the Poor Hardest
Todd J. Zywicki and Julian Morris 5/1/2017 Wall Street Journal

Unintended consequences.

Dollar SuperCycle Ends
Christopher Whalen 5/3/2017 the Institutional Risk Analyst

This will happen as soon as the ECB begins to raise interest rates.

The Decline of Men Working: Why It Is Happening, What It Means, and What to Do About It
Jason Furman 5/2/2017 Peterson Institute for International Economics

This is true across the board, in a host of nations. Except Germany, where workforce participation by prime age men actually increased. Why?

The on-demand economy is a bubble—and it’s about to burst
Quartz Media 4/28/2017

I don't agree. The on-demand economy will morph, but it's here to stay for millennials.

Here's why earnings are so outstanding even though the US economy is barely growing
Evelyn Chen 4/30/2017 CNBC

US firms with international revenues performed far better than firms dependent on domestic demand.

Farm Loan Delinquency Rates Tick up, Report Shows
David Widmar 4/24/2017 Agriculture.com

Farm loan delinquencies doubled from 2014-16 but are still below the long run average.

40% of Americans spend up to half of their income servicing debt
Maria Lamagna 4/30/2017 MarketWatch

And we wonder why consumption is down.

EconVue Research

Data Round-Up: April 'Showers' of Jobs Underscores Solid Labor Market, Likely June Rate Hike
Michael Lewis  (Subscriber content) 

April jobs ‘showers’ erased any lingering March clouds. A June rate hike, already widely expected, now looks certain in six weeks. Payroll jobs rebounded in April in line with the consensus estimates, but the report’s tone was even better: job gains were up, workweek up, wages up. Meanwhile, labor slack shrank below the Fed’s best estimate.

News from India  More rain!
Deepak Lalwani

An abstract of the report offered by our India economist Deepak Lalwani, who says that this year’s heavier than normal monsoons are good news that will bring growth to India's economy.  51% of its population is employed in agriculture versus 37% in China.

Data Plays
Collin Canright 

After attending two FinTech conferences in Chicago last week, it is clear that FinTech themes have shifted toward artificial intelligence and machine learning, away from last year's primary focus on blockchain and its potential.

40 Years in the Payment Reform Wilderness: DRGs to Nirvana - Part 1
David Johnson

The acceleration toward value-based care is exactly what healthcare is experiencing today. What was a principal catalyst of this shift to value-based care delivery? The redesign of the Medicare Advantage program in 2003.

Our Experts in the Media

Robert Shapiro
Trump’s ‘Big’ Plan Based on Big Debt, Claims Ex-Clinton Economic Adviser
Observer 5/2/2017

President Trump's economic plan is unlikely to clear the many hurdles it faces.

Saul Eslake
Home Ownership and Housing Affordability
Pearls and Irritations 5/2/2017

The causes and effects of the housing affordability crisis (in Australia), and what can and should be done about it.