Macro
Data Round-Up: NFIB, Manpower, JOLTS Show Continued Healthy Jobs Market
written by Michael Lewis on December 08, 2015
FMI’s analyses of today’s November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, October JOLTS report and 16Q1 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Solid Jobs Results Put a Bow on December Rate Hike
written by Michael Lewis on December 04, 2015
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s November Employment and October International Trade reports.
Data Round-Up: Services OK But Well Off Recent Highs
written by Michael Lewis on December 03, 2015
FMI’s analysis of today’s November Non-Manufacturing Index, September International Trade report as well as notes on this morning’s October Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories & Orders report.
Nov. Jobs Preview: Expect +210K Private Payroll Gain -- 'Go' Signal for FOMC
written by Michael Lewis on December 03, 2015
FMI’s Preview of the November Employment Report including their review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.
Data Round-Up: Vehicle Sales Stay in High Gear; Compensation Trend Improving
written by Michael Lewis on December 02, 2015
FMI’s review of November Vehicle Sales and today’s Revised 15Q3 Productivity & Labor Costs data.
TOE Alert: Is Japan's Potential Growth Really As Low as 0.5%, Part 4
written by Richard Katz on December 01, 2015
One way to boost labor productivity, and thus potential growth, is to give each worker more tools, and this Japan has done. Over the long haul, however, it is ever more important to give workers “smarter” tools, e.g. moving from animal-pulled plows to tractors, from the stand-alone PC to the Internet. And it is important for companies to use those smarter tools up to their full potential. On this front, as we will detail today, Japan falls short.
FMI December 2015 Economic and Investment Outlook
written by Michael Lewis on December 01, 2015
FMI's complete December 2015 Economic & Investment Outlook.
Data Round-Up: PMI Shows Mfg Contraction, Still Points to +2% Real GDP in 15Q4
written by Michael Lewis on December 01, 2015
FMI’s analyses of this morning’s November PMI survey and October Construction report.
TOE Alert: Is BOJ right that Japan's potential growth is as low as 0.5%? Part 1
written by Richard Katz on November 18, 2015
We pointed out in our Nov. 16 Alert that Japan’s GDP has grown at a mere 0.6% annual pace in the nearly four years since early 2012,but our gut feeling is that the BOJ’s figure is too pessimistic, and the purpose of today’s Alert is to explore that question.
TOE Alert: Is Japan's Potential Growth Really Just 0.5%, Part 2
written by Richard Katz on December 24, 2015
In our Alert of Nov. 18, we began looking at whether Japan’s potential growth is really as low as the 0.5% rate asserted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)? Our gut feeling is that the BOJ is too pessimistic and that potential growth is more likely around 0.8%-0.9%, more or less the same as for the last quarter-century.
