Macro

TOE Alert: Real Wages Fall almost 1% in 2015; Fourth Consecutive Fall

written by Richard Katz on February 08, 2016

Key points of this TOE Alert include: - Real wages per worker fell 0.9% in 2015, marking the fourth decline in a row; - One of the most disappointing omens for the future in the December report was the 0.8% fall in nominal bonuses, a harbinger for a disappointing shunto negotiations on overall wages; - Some officials and economists keep blaming the data, rather than look at the reality

TOE Alert: Financial Market Mayhem

written by Richard Katz on February 09, 2016

Key points for Richard Katz's TOE Alert include: - Stock prices fell 5% on Tuesday and another 2.4% Wednesday morning to the lowest level since Kuroda’s “monetary bazooka” of October 2014; - The yen stands at ¥114.6/$, the strongest level since October 2014; - Yields on JGBs out to ten-year maturity are now in negative territory, for the first time; - Banks, pension funds, insurers all invest heavily in JGBs; - Banks have already made big cuts in the rates they pay depositors, but are not expected to go into negative territory for households or SMEs; - All this means a squeeze on earnings at banks, insurers and pension funds

Data Round-Up: NFIB Mired in Doldrums, But Labor Outlook Remains Upbeat

written by Michael Lewis on February 09, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and December JOLTS data.

FMI Weekly Data Preview: February 8-12

written by Michael Lewis on February 08, 2016

FMI’s complete Preview of this week’s notable data releases.

Kuroda Goes Negative on Interest Rates - Monetary ‘Hail Mary’

written by Richard Katz on February 05, 2016

Richard Katz's February 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist

Data Round-Up: Strong Wage Gains Increase the Odds for a March Rate Hike

written by Michael Lewis on February 05, 2016

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s January Employment (including a review of the Annual Payroll Benchmark) and December International Trade reports.

Core PCE Likely Understates the ‘True’ Inflation Trend

written by Michael Lewis on February 05, 2016

FMI’s Friday Focus Commentary on differences between the core PCE and core CPI deflator.

BOJ Tried a Bazooka with Negative Rates, but It's Just a Pop Gun

written by Richard Katz on January 29, 2016

Followings are the key points fro this report, - BOJ tried another surprise “bazooka” but only managed a pop gun - Will apply a “negative interest rate” of 0.1% on new deposits of “excess reserves” held by banks at the BOJ - Hope is that it will get banks to lend more and thereby boost company investment and consumer spending - It won’t work: problem is not banks unwillingness to lend, but business/firm unwillingness to borrow