Macro

TOE March 2016

written by Richard Katz on March 07, 2016

Richard Katz's March 2016 issue of the Oriental Economist. Topics include Abe’s Approval: A Mile Wide, Just An Inch Deep, So Strong and Yet So Weak; Negative Rate Backfire, Tax Postponement Mulled; Raising Profits without Raising Sales, A New Bottom Line; Nuke Power Plans Don’t Add Up and Flood of New Diet Members Decimates LDP ‘Old Guard’ - Abe’s New Conservativism

Inventory Correction Should Be Essentially Done by Spring

written by Michael Lewis on March 11, 2016

FMI’s Commentary on the soon-to-be-concluded inventory correction, as well as our review of February U.S. Dollar and Trade Prices data and our Preview of the coming week’s major data releases.

Data Round-Up: US UI Claims Very Healthy; ECB Adds More Stimulus

written by Michael Lewis on March 10, 2016

FMI’s review of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic results.

Data Round-Up: NFIB Mired in Doldrums, But Labor Outlook Remains Healthy

written by Michael Lewis on March 08, 2016

FMI’s analyses of today’s February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and 16Q2 Manpower Employment Index results.

FMI Weekly Data Preview: March 7-11

written by Michael Lewis on March 07, 2016

FMI’s complete Preview of the few data releases this week

February Slump in Wages, Hours Was Likely Exaggerated

written by Michael Lewis on March 04, 2016

FMI’s Commentary on what to look at, and what to downplay, in the monthly employment report.

Data Round-Up: Despite Solid Payroll Jobs Gain, FOMC Likely to Stand Pat in March

written by Michael Lewis on March 04, 2016

FMI’s analysis of this morning’s February Employment and January International Trade reports.

TOE Alert: Teflon Abe; the Curse of One-Party Democracy

written by Richard Katz on March 02, 2016

Key points: - As we expected, public disenchantment has grown as Abenomics failed to deliver on its promises; in a new Nikkei poll, 50% of respondents said they were dissatisfied - However, we were wrong in our expectation that disenchantment with Abenomics would propel a steady erosion of Abe’s overall approval ratings; over the last year, approval has stabilized at around 40-50%, a high level for a PM with Abe’s tenure - There is growing expectation that Abe will call—and win—a double-election this summer of both Upper and Lower House; Abe will not, however, secure a two-thirds majority in both Houses needed to revise the Constitution

Abe Considering Another Postponement of Tax Hike on Poor Consumer Spending

written by Richard Katz on March 03, 2016

Key points: - Kantei considering another postponement of the consumption tax hike - This is partly due to upcoming election and partly due to ongoing bad news on consumer spending - Consumer spending in January was down a whopping 4% from a year ago - Spending is now even lower than it was in mid-2014 after the consumption tax was raised from 5% to 8% - Auto sales are down 20% from a year ago - Some economists see GDP falling again in January-March, after having fallen at a 1.4% annual rate in October-December