Monetary Policy

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FMI Weekly Data Preview: February 16-20

FMI’s Preview of the mostly second-tier data releases in this holiday-shortened week.

The Economic and Investment Outlook-the Case for Mid-2015 Rate Hikes

FMI analyzes the high probability of the Fed's intent to normalize the monetary policy in June this year.

FOMC Stays on Course for Mid-Year Rate Hike

FMI’s commentary on today’s FOMC post-meeting statement.

TOE Alert: BOJ Sends up Grey Flag in Revising Downward Its Inflation Forecast

Richard reports that the Bank of Japan Governor has raised the grey flag for achieving the 2% inflation target in two years.

TOE Alert: Cabinet Office Admits BOJ won't Make 2% Inflation Goal in FY 2015

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is pulling out all the stops in order to make good on its promise of achieving 2% inflation toward the latter half of fiscal 2015 (which ends April 2016).

Kuroda’s “Hail Mary” pass

In the face of a growing loss of faith in the Bank of Japan’s ability to either achieve its 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future or to help boost real growth—and even snarky passages in the press about BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda “stealthily extending the deadline for exiting deflation”—Kuroda threw a “Hail Mary” pass.

FOMC Ends QE3, Tilts in More Hawkish Direction

FMI’s commentary on today’s FOMC post-meeting statement.

Japan Financial Markets Moved by U.S. Events

The ups and downs of Japanese stocks have closely mirrored those in the US since August.

Incipient LDP/SME Revolt Against First Arrow

When some powerful leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) complain that the “First Arrow” of Abenomics (monetary ease and yen deprecation) is causing more harm than good, you know that the credibility of Abenomics has reached a turning point. And when this coincides with an indicator from the Cabinet Office that suggests the risk of an out-and-out recession following the April hike in the consumption tax, then you know that the bloom is really off the rose.

New ‘Ultimate’ Labor Indicators Offer More Noise than News

FMI’s commentary on the dueling Labor Market Conditions Indices released this week by the Federal Reserve and the Kansas City Fed.