Growth Outlook and Business Cycle

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Data Round-Up: 'Gray' July Retail Sales Point to Softer 14Q3 Consumption Growth

FMI’s analyses of today’s July Retail Sales and June Business Inventories reports as well as an updated look at 14Q2 GDP Sources & Assumptions.

Data Round-Up: UI Claims Holding Near Structural Lows

FMI’s reviews of the latest Weekly UI Claims & Rail Traffic data and the June Import/Export Prices report.

FMI Data Analysis: August 15

Solid industrial production report

Weekly Data Preview: August 4-8

The highlight of this week’s few releases will be Wednesday’s International Trade report for June.

Vehicle Sales Remain Healthy in July

Vehicle sales reached an estimated 16.4 mm units in July (seasonally-adjusted at annual rate). While down a bit from June’s cycle high of 16.8 mm, sales were in line with the strong 14Q2 average.

June Spending, Income Drops Again, Worse than 1997

Income and Spending Down Again in June in Japan

Real Exports in June Down 2% From Last Year

Plurality of Voters Disapprove of Abenomics; Exports down in June 2% from Last Year

Post-Tax Hike Consumer Spending Tracking 1997 Path

April-May Post-Tax Hike Spending Tracks Fairly Closely the Pattern in 1997

Preview of Data Releases: May 27 - 30, 2014

Also of note this week will be April Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income reports on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Tuesday’s March Home Prices data should show continued solid year-over-year appreciation, though momentum is slowing gradually.

Preview of Data Releases: May 19 - 23, 2014

With the Fed on auto-pilot – monitoring data and tapering QE3 until this autumn – no revelations are likely

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